Navigating the Natural Gas Futures Market:
The natural gas futures market is a place where any commercial player or speculator can come together with other entities and contract for future purchases or sales of natural gas. Because of the differing reasons and motivations of the participants, movement in natural gas futures is often times viewed as random or even counter logical. Having been involved with natural gas futures since 1991, we have found strong seasonal tendencies and that there are times of the year when movements are inspired by current fundamentals and times when movements become more controlled by the anxiety or comfort of something that may transpire in the future. SMC uses a seasonal approach to the market and looks for fundamentals to initiate and determine the magnitude of trends. While no approach to the market is perfect, SMC's is backed with a successful use of futures instruments for hedging and profit since 1991. Essentially, SMC lays out expectations for market movement and monitors fundamentals and technical considerations to attempt to identify factors that will create deviations or alterations. Do not look for SMC to make profound forecasts and predictions as SMC has been a player long enough to understand how weather and other factors outside of reasonable control can significantly alter a long term pricing outlook over weeks and even days. Probabilities, history, and experience come heavily into play in SMC's end product.
How the product helps the bottom line:
The control of energy pricing is becoming an essential component of economic survival in today's world. With the increasing volatility of the natural gas futures market, the SMC reports are designed to provide an ongoing perspective of the market and assist entities in identifying higher probability timeframes and price levels that are best suited for satisfying a company's risk management goals. By using the reports, companies should be better able to systematically implement hedges or market positions at logical points and can better avoid emotional or panic decisions.
The weekly reports reflect what has transpired since the monthly report and discuss whether the market is proceeding within expectations and whether changes in hedging strategy are appropriate. These reports assume the client is familiar with the methodology and are more specific and straight to the point. Because the market is in a constant state of flux it is important for serious entities to be continually aware of how current events are affecting strategy and trading recommendations.
Product Number: MOSREPW
Price: $110
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The monthly reports are generally designed to take a step back and take a longer-term perspective of the natural gas futures market. The report ties in what has happened over time and how we think it will affect future movement. It is also longer and discusses our methodology and why we look at each factor.
It lays out long-term expectations for market movement that are monitored and adjusted in weekly reports.
Product Number: MOSREPM
Price: $190
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Monthly Subscription to Weekly and Monthly Reports
Product No. MOSREPWM
Price: $500/month
Annual Subscription to Monthly Reports
Product No. MOSREPAM
Price: $2,160 /year
Annual Subscription to Weekly and Monthly Reports
Product No. MOSREPAMW
Price: $6,000/year
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FROM SMC: Steven A. Mosley & Company Inc.
GOALS:
"The SMC Report - Natural Gas Futures Advisory Report"
SMC's goal is to produce a thoughtful, understandable report that takes a systematic and seasoned approach to the natural gas futures market. While the reports are intended as a tool for entities looking to hedge purchases or sales, they are considered very useful to others interested in market direction such as marketers, hedge funds, mutual funds, pipelines, LDC's and government entities. The idea is to make sense of the futures market and attempt to identify high probability situations for best hedging opportunities. The reports focus on the seasonal nature of the market and consider fundamental and technical aspects as well as history. There is also a good dose of market experience. Serious entities are encouraged to subscribe to the full package of reports which include monthly and weekly reports and occasional midweek updates. COMMODITY TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND IS NOT FOR EVERYONE."
PRINCIPALS OF SMC
Mr. Steven A. Mosley is president and the sole principal of SMC and makes all business decisions regarding price forecasting and advisory services on behalf of SMC. Mr. Mosley was employed by big eight accounting firm Ernst & Whinney early in his career and oil and gas companies Phillips Petroleum, Samson Resources, Northern Natural, and Arkla Energy Resources before founding SMC. Mr. Mosley received a BS in Accounting from Oklahoma State University.
Mr. Mosley has 23 years of combined experience in the natural gas industry and in using natural gas futures. This unique mix of perspective and experience has spanned from regulation to deregulation and includes all 19 years of deregulated yearly pricing cycles and the use of futures instruments for hedging and profit since the inception of the natural gas futures contract.
The company initially engaged in industrial natural gas marketing and eventually evolved into futures in the early 1990's after using swaps for hedging and futures for profit. The gas marketing side of the business was sold in 1993. After building a 10-year track record using only company funds, the company name was changed to SMC in 2002 and regulatory steps were completed to become a commodity trading advisor so that SMC could properly offer price forecasting and advisory services to outside companies and entities.
PRICE FORECASTING AND ADVISORY SERVICES
As mentioned above, SMC tailors its services to provide optimum assistance to natural gas producers, end users and other entities who are looking for the best advice possible on when to buy, sell, and hedge natural gas. Timely forecasting advice can be provided primarily in the form of monthly, weekly or daily updates through the Internet and/or in the form of reports or by telephone. Such advice will analyze and discuss all relevant fundamental and technical factors which SMC believes will affect price movement, and will report on the expected short or long-term price direction. The goal is to provide clients with objective, independent advice which will ultimately achieve company goals of reducing costs and maximizing revenue.
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