Archive for 2010

    Drilling moratorium may be more costly than oil spill

    September 8, 2010 4:38 PM by Don Stowers
    Economic researchers in Louisiana and Texas have been busy calculating the damage to the states’ economies caused by the Obama administration’s moratorium on deepwater drilling. It turns out that the economic impact to businesses and workers in both states may be more severe than the cost of the cleanup in the aftermath of the April 20 explosion and fire aboard the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig and the subsequent gusher of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico. A small portion of that oil washed ashore on Louisiana beaches and marshes, and the spill shut down the fishing industry near the affected areas.

    As costly as that has been (estimates range upward to several billion dollars), the long-term loss of jobs of offshore oil industry workers and the loss of business for related companies may be even worse, says a report by the Houston-based Institute for Energy Research.

    More than 8,000 jobs and about $500 million in wages will be lost if the moratorium continues longer than six months, according to the report titled “The Economic Cost of a Moratorium on Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration to the Gulf Region.” This will result in a total economic loss of about $2.1 billion to the area.

    Joseph Mason, a professor at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, says that economic losses in Texas will be about $622 million, about half that of Louisiana. However, he says the data suggests that, “The moratorium could be more costly than the oil spill itself.”

    There is no doubt that the oil spill will lead to tougher regulations on Gulf of Mexico drilling, and this may drive some drilling contractors and operators to other countries where the rules governing drilling aren’t as onerous to the petroleum industry. So the long-term loss of jobs and tax revenue from operators, industry vendors, and employees may be very detrimental to the economies in Louisiana and Texas.

    One industry veteran told me recently, “We have come back from Katrina, from Gustav, from Ike, and from other natural disasters. However, I don’t know if the industry will ever recover if the government chases off [operators]. The oil and gas industry is the basis for our livelihood, and I don’t know what can take its place.”

    The major Gulf of Mexico players like BP, Shell, Chevron, and others are large diversified corporations with worldwide operations. They will survive whatever the government throws at them. However, many of the independent operators that are focused almost exclusively on the Gulf may not. Neither will some of the family-owned and smaller suppliers to the offshore industry.

    This is not obtuse economic theory. To those of us who live along the Gulf Coast, it is tangible and easy to understand. If the White House truly wants to turn the economy around and stop the loss of jobs, it must consider lifting the drilling moratorium immediately.

    Howard Dean, Ed Gillespie agree: Energy policy needed

    September 1, 2010 5:07 PM by Mikaila Adams
    According to the Ernst & Young Business Risk Report 2010, the country's uncertain energy policy is the No. 1 risk to the oil and gas industry. Actually, the move wasn't a monumental one as this risk ranked No. 2 in the same survey last year, topped only by "access to reserves: political constraints and competition for proven reserves."

    I see a theme here.

    Ernst & Young points to the "vague outcome" of the Copenhagen climate conference in December 2009 as one factor. Yet another: the energy policy decisions further complicated by the tragic Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

    Political factors that might limit or prevent access to reserves and an uncertain energy policy that hinders the ability of oil and gas companies to plan, invest, and respond to the laws of supply and demand have a tight grip around the industry that provides the country with its energy needs.

    At Ernst & Young's Energy Executive Insight Session recently, I had the opportunity to hear a debate between Howard Dean, Former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, and Ed Gillespie, Former Chairman of the Republican National Committee.

    As politicians do, each stated their case for victory in the coming elections. However, both agreed on one thing: the need for a cohesive and comprehensive energy policy.

    Governor Dean believes the country hasn't had an effective energy policy in 20 years, partly because the topic isn't well understood in Washington, partly because the industry itself isn't unified.

    Different constituencies – wildcatters, super majors, enhanced recovery companies – are working against each other instead of together. Dean noted the coal industry as one example. "The biggest opposition of the oil and gas industry outside of the government is the coal industry," said Dean, referring specifically to shale development in the unconventional resources space.

    Will natural gas be a bridge fuel because of its clean-burning properties and plentiful supply? Gillespie, who does work with the Natural Gas Alliance, thinks so. "Natural gas is looming in a big way in the energy debate," he said. "It's inevitable we'll see more reliance on natural gas – maybe in our autos," he continued.

    While Dean disagrees about natural gas in the automobile industry – he feels electricity has leapfrogged the fuel in that regard – broadly speaking, he sees the US as having the ability to use all forms of energy. The question is in what order and how do we do it? The technology is there, but the marketplace is distorted. This is where an energy policy is needed.

    "No matter what happens with the election, the parties will have to decide they WANT to pass something," commented Dean.

    Can the energy industry to come together and write an energy plan?

    Chesapeake due for 'Major' upgrade

    February 26, 2010 2:50 PM by Mikaila Adams
    The face of the energy industry is changing. It is cyclical. It has happened before, and it will happen again. Certain independent exploration and production companies didn't survive the credit crisis.

    Those names are gone from the radar; that's one change. Another might be the way we think about some of the large independents.

    "Never stop thinking," offered Kenneth A. Hersh, CEO of NGP Energy Capital Management, at IPAA’s Private Capital Conference in Houston on Thursday.

    Hersh reminded the crowd that the oil and gas industry is not immune to the conditions and phases that other industries have gone through, and that now is a time to maintain discipline, push forward, and perhaps change the way we perceive the industry.

    The best example of the changing times, he said, is the changing of the 'majors,' and perhaps even, the 'super-majors.' ExxonMobil is a non-disputed supermajor. Ten years ago the company had an enterprise value of roughly $50 billion spread throughout the world.

    Today, while companies like Chesapeake, Devon, and Apache are all, in fact, independents, they really should be considered majors, he said. Each carries an enterprise value of over $40 billion, and inflation and other generational considerations aside, the companies are certainly in the league as the Exxon of a decade ago -- bigger when you consider the scope of the companies in North America alone.

    What do you think? Is it time for the industry to lump these companies in with the Exxons and Chevrons of the world?